Weekly Market Commentary

Weekly Market Commentary

Get weekly stock market updates from top LPL Financial research strategists. Stay up-to-date on financial market trends and understand stock market predictions.

We understand that investing is both a financial and emotional effort, and it can be difficult to cut through all the clutter. LPL Research helps us keep a pulse on the global markets so that we can keep up with the rapid pace of change and make sure you feel informed and ready for what may lie ahead.

3 Factors That Could Change Inflation

July 25th, 2022 | LPL Research

For the past year, supply-related problems contributed more to inflation than demand-related imbalances, but that may be changing soon. There are at least three factors that could change the course of inflation. First, the improvement in shipping and general supply bottlenecks could ease inflation. Second, strength in the U.S. dollar could offset some of the current inflationary pressures. And third, import prices have moderated since the beginning of 2022 and as import prices slow, we expect consumer prices to eventually reflect the slowdown in import prices. 

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Earnings Recap: Still Hanging In There

August 29th, 2022 | LPL Research

Earnings growth of 6-7% doesn’t sound very exciting, but given the challenges corporate America has faced, we consider the nearly-complete second quarter earnings season a resounding success. The numerous challenges last quarter included a slowing economy, intensifying inflation pressures, ongoing global supply chain disruptions, and a surging U.S. dollar. Still, corporate America delivered the type of upside investors have grown accustomed to in much easier economic environments.

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Home Sales Fall (Again). What’s Next?

August 23rd, 2022 | LPL Research

Existing home sales fell 5.9% in July, the sixth consecutive month of declines as higher interest rates weigh on housing affordability and prospective buyers. As the housing market slowed, so did prices. The median price for a single family home was $410,600, a decline of roughly $10,000 from June. However, homes do not stay on the market long. Over the last two months, homes were on the market for an average of only 14 days, three days shorter than a year ago.

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Relief at the Pump and for Portfolios?

June 27th, 2022 | LPL Research

2022 has been rough all-around for the American consumer. Not only are we battling decades-high inflation, but investors’ portfolios are off to one of the worst starts to a year in history as we near the halfway point. Our technical work is first and foremost rooted in trend following, and the trend in both stock and bond prices so far this year have of course been down. 

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Is This the Start of a New Bull Market?

August 15th, 2022 | LPL Research

Investors cheered the two better-than-expected inflation reports last week, pushing the S&P 500 to 16% above its June 16 low and only 11% below its all-time high. After this rebound, the key question investors are asking is whether this is a bear market rally that will soon fizzle or the start of a new bull market. There’s too much uncertainty to have a high conviction view right now, but we do believe the odds have risen that a new bull market has begun.

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Bear Market Q&A

June 20th, 2022 | LPL Research

The bear market that started on June 13 has left the S&P 500 Index 23.5% below its January 3 high. After the initial positive reaction to the Federal Reserve’s first 0.75% rate hike since 1994 and tough talk on inflation, heightened fears of recession and that the Fed might “break something” sent stocks down for the 10th week out of 11 for only the second time in history. 

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The Economy Is Slowing But Not Shrinking

June 6th, 2022 | LPL Research

Many pundits are issuing recession warnings and saying the economy is heading for a hard landing. Amid the cacophony of voices, we think the economy is slowing just like central bankers want but not shrinking. Further, we argue that a slowing economy is very different than a shrinking one. 

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Dawn of a New Era For Core Bonds

May 23rd, 2022 | LPL Research

Core bond investors have experienced the worst start to the year ever. However tough this year has been so far though (and it has been tough), the potential for future returns has improved meaningfully, in our view. Starting yields tend to be a good predictor of future returns and have become more attractive in a number of markets recently. 

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Corporate America Delivers, Market Attention Focused Elsewhere

May 16th, 2022 | LPL Research

First quarter earnings season was solid by just about any measure, but based on recent market behavior it’s obvious that in general market participants paid little attention.

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Why You Shouldn't Sell Your Stocks In May This Year

May 2nd, 2022 | LPL Research

“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited stock market cliché in history. Every year a barrage of Wall Street commentaries, media stories, and investor questions flood in about the popular stock market adage. 

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What to Watch This Earnings Season

April 18th, 2022 | LPL Research

First quarter earnings season is rolling. BlackRock, Delta Airlines, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley were among the first 16 S&P 500 companies to report March quarter results, following 20 index constituents with quarters ending in February that had already reported.

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Headwinds to Global Growth: An Economy of Two Halves

April 11th, 2022 | LPL Research

LPL Research reduced U.S. and global GDP forecasts due to Russian commodity disruptions, elevated inflation dynamics, and higher borrowing costs. Still, we expect the U.S. economy to grow 2.7-3.2% in 2022, supported by business investment and consumer services spending in the latter half of this year.

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Stock Market Final Four

April 4th, 2022 | LPL Research

As the Final Four NCAA Basketball Tournament rolls on in New Orleans, we continue our tradition of picking a stock market final four. We have identified our four key factors for the stock market outlook: 1) Consumer spending, 2) Earnings, 3) Interest rates, and 4) Inflation.

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Are Core Bond Under Pressure?

March 21st, 2022 | LPL Research

Core bond investors have experienced one of the worst starts to the year ever, potentially calling into question the validity of bonds in a portfolio. Despite the poor start, we don’t think the value proposition for bonds has changed much.

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Ready, Set, Rate Hike

March 14th, 2022 | LPL Research

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to increase short-term interest rates this week for the first time since emergency levels of monetary support were enacted in the aftermath of the COVID-19 shutdowns. 

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Downshift In US Market Growth But Still Above Trend

March 7th, 2022 | LPL Research

We currently expect the U.S. economy to grow 3.7% in 2022. The risks are to the downside since the Fed may err on tightening too fast, the recent commodity spike may trickle down to the U.S. consumer, and supply and demand imbalances may last longer than expected.

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How Soon Are Rate Hikes Coming?

February 28th, 2022 | LPL Research

With inflationary pressures running higher than many central bankers are comfortable with, calls for interest rate hikes have become louder. A number of important central bank meetings are set to take place in March.

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Strong Momentum to Start 2022

February 21st, 2022 | LPL Research

Corporate America has capped off an outstanding 2021 with an excellent fourth quarter earnings season so far. Entering 2021, the consensus estimate for S&P 500 Index earnings per share (EPS) was less than $170. 

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Which Region Will Get The Gold in 2022

February 7th, 2022 | LPL Research

The near-10% correction in the S&P 500 Index and even larger drawdown in the Nasdaq have gotten a lot of attention this year. What hasn’t gotten as much attention—and maybe surprising to some—is the relative resilience in equity markets outside the U.S.

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Can Corporate America Keep It Rolling?

January 31st, 2022 | LPL Research

Sustainable investing hit several milestones in 2021, but continued to attract its critics. Below we look at how sustainable investing fits within the broader concept of sustainability, its growth during 2021, and an implementation framework that has been helpful for many. 

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Potenial Catalysts For A Market Turnaround

January 24th, 2022 | LPL Research

After a tough start for stocks in 2022, investors are looking for reasons to expect a rebound. After more than doubling off the pandemic lows in March 2020, without anything more than a 5% pullback in 2021, stocks probably needed a break. 

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Don't Expect The Fed To End This Bull Anytime Soon

January 17th, 2022 | LPL Research

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has engineered a massive hawkish shift, causing a bit more stock market volatility recently. But how worried should investors be?

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Can Corporate America Keep It Rolling?

January 10th, 2022 | LPL Research

In many ways, 2021 was a typical year for markets, but it also reinforced some basic market lessons that are hard to learn, even if they are not new. As we launch into the New Year, we’re highlighting three 2021 market lessons that we think may matter for 2022.

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Three 2021 Market Lessons for 2022

January 3rd, 2022 | LPL Research

In many ways, 2021 was a typical year for markets, but it also reinforced some basic market lessons that are hard to learn, even if they are not new. As we launch into the New Year, we’re highlighting three 2021 market lessons that we think may matter for 2022.

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How Much Higher Can Treasury Yields Go?

December 27th, 2021 | LPL Research

We expect interest rates to move modestly higher in 2022 based on near-term inflation expectations above historical trends and improving growth expectations once the impact of COVID-19 variants recede.

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Stock Market Outlook 2022: Another good year?

December 20th, 2021 | LPL Research

We expect solid economic and earnings growth in 2022 to help U.S. stocks deliver additional gains next year. If we are approaching—or are already in—the middle of an economic cycle with at least a few more years left (our view), then we believe the chances of another good year for stocks in 2022 are quite high. 

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Economic Outlook 2022

December 13th, 2021 | LPL Research

We believe pent-up demand, gradual improvement in supply chain challenges, solid labor force growth, and productivity gains will all contribute to another year of above-trend economic growth in 2022. COVID-19-related risks remain and the potential for a policy mistake may be elevated as the economy moves towards normalization, but we think the overall environment will be supportive of business growth and ultimately equity markets.

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The Stock Market, Economy, And New Year: Three Reasons To Be Thankful

November 22nd, 2021 | LPL Research

There are only six weeks to go in 2021 and it has been an incredible year for the stock market bulls. In fact, in many ways it could go down as one of the best years ever. This week, in honor of Thanksgiving, we wanted to take a closer look at three reasons to be thankful. From the stock market to the economy, there are indeed many reasons to be thankful this year. 

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